Used Vehicle Value Index
Quarterly Conference Call
The next quarterly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) conference call is scheduled for Tuesday, Jul 8 at 11am ET.
Join Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke, Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights, and Scott Vanner, Economic and Industry Insights analyst, as they discuss the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and the major economic and industry trends that shaped the quarter.
All questions related to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and wholesale market can be sent to manheim.data@coxautoinc.com.
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By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. View the index methodology.
The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer’s results.
Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increase in the First Half of April
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) rose sharply from March in the first 15 days of April. The mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index increased to 207.1, showing a rise of 4.3% from the full month of April 2024 with the seasonal adjustment dampening the non-adjusted price increase. The non-adjusted price change in the first half of April rose 2.7% compared to March, and the unadjusted price is higher by 3.7% year over year. The average move for the full month of April is an increase of 1.3 percentage points on non-adjusted values, indicating the appreciation observed so far in April is quite a bit higher than normal, influenced by the impact of tariffs on new vehicles.
“Wholesale markets were not as strong as usual in March, but they turned on a dime the last week of the month and into early April as tariffs were implemented,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “In the first two weeks of April, we’ve seen much stronger sales conversion and pricing trends at Manheim, as dealers look to replenish inventory on the back of higher used retail demand. Valuation trends are likely to stay elevated through Q2 relative to normal, but appreciation trends in the second week of the month were not quite as strong as the first, so the frenzy could already have peaked. With the volatility in the financial markets, it’s not surprising to see some impact on the consumer’s appetite.”
Over the last two weeks, the Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices in the Three-Year-Old Index increased by an aggregate of 2.5%, demonstrating much stronger appreciation trends than normal, which would be a rise of 0.2% on the long-term average. Over the first 15 days of April, MMR Retention, the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 100.6%, indicating that market prices have moved ahead of valuation models early in April. MMR retention is 1.3 percentage points higher compared to the first half of April 2024. The average daily sales conversion rate of 66.8% in the first half of the month was more than 8 points higher than last year’s level of 55.5%, and it is above the first half of April 2019 by more than 3 points.
Most major market segments saw positive results for seasonally adjusted prices year over year in the first half of April. Compared to the industry’s year-over-year increase of 4.3%, SUVs performed best, rising by 5.1%, and the luxury segment was higher by 4.7%. Rising less than the industry, trucks were up 2.3% and mid-size cars rose 0.9%. The compact car segment was the only group to decline in the month, falling 0.8% against last year. All segments were higher compared with the results at the end of March. The overall industry increased 2.2% against the prior month, and mid-size cars did a bit better, rising 2.3%. All other segments were higher, but they did not rise as much as the industry overall, with the SUV segment rising 2.0% in the month, trucks rising 1.9%, and compact cars higher by 1.5%. The luxury segment also rose, but appreciated at a lesser rate than other segments, as it was only up 0.2% from March.
Electric vehicles (EVs) joined the other segments and showed a rise on a year-over-year basis as well as against March, though it lags the increase seen for the non-EV segment. Additionally, EV share of volume in the MUVVI index is at its highest level, rising to over 3% of all vehicles in the index for the first time ever at the mid-month point of April. The EV segment was up 0.6% against April 2024, while the non-EV segment was higher by 4.3%. Against March values, EVs appreciated by 1.2% in the first half of April, while non-EVs rose 2.1% in the month.
Wholesale supply is down in mid-April. Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data, wholesale supply ended March at an estimated 23 days, down three days from the end of February and also down one day compared to March 2024 (at 24 days). Wholesale supply continues to hold tighter at this time of year, running roughly three days lower than the longer-term levels for this week. As of April 15, wholesale supply had declined one day from the end of March, at 22 days, and was 8% or two days lower versus last year.
Measures of consumer sentiment show continued weakness in April. The initial April reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan declined 10.9% to 50.8, which was weaker than expected and was the lowest reading since June 2022. The index was down 34.2% year over year. Views of both current conditions and expectations declined. Expectations for inflation in one year jumped to 6.7% from 5.0%, and expectations for inflation in five years increased to 4.4% from 4.1%. Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles declined to the lowest level since September 2022 as views of prices deteriorated, but views of interest rates improved. The daily index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult also shows a decline through April 15. The index declined 0.1% in January, another 1.7% in March, and it has declined 1.2% so far in April, leaving the index up only 1.5% year over year. The average price of unleaded gasoline has declined 1.0% as of April 15 and is down 13% year over year.
