Used Vehicle Value Index
Quarterly Conference Call
The next quarterly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) conference call is scheduled for Monday, Apr 7 at 11am ET.
Join Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke, Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights, and Scott Vanner, Economic and Industry Insights analyst, as they discuss the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and the major economic and industry trends that shaped the quarter.
All questions related to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and wholesale market can be sent to manheim.data@coxautoinc.com.
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By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. View the index methodology.
The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer’s results.
Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increase in the First Half of January
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher than those of December in the first 15 days of January. The mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose to 205.4, now showing a gain of 0.7% from the full month of January 2024. The seasonal adjustment dampened the results for the month, and it is marginally higher than last year in the first half of January. The non-adjusted price change in the first half of January rose 0.5% compared to December, and the unadjusted price is up a full 1% year over year. The average move for the month of January is a decrease of two-tenths of a point for seasonally adjusted values, showing that values are stronger at the beginning of 2025.
“Early in the year, it’s best to let the dust settle on wholesale prices, but values at Manheim are showing pretty normal trends in the first few weeks of 2025,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “We typically see a small rise in non-seasonally adjusted values for the full month of January, and we are up about a tenth of a point more than we usually observe early in the month. While we need to see what happens over the rest of January, non-seasonally adjusted prices are showing their second gain in a row year over year, higher by 1%. With tighter used retail supply and ever-rising new-vehicle prices, demand for used vehicles in our wholesale markets remains healthy.”
Over the last two weeks, the Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices in the Three-Year-Old Index declined an aggregate of 0.2%, which was just one-tenth higher than the normal decline of 0.1% observed at this time of year. It is important to note, however, that judging true trends very early in the year is challenging, as the algorithms are setting the baskets that are measured.
Over the first 15 days of January, MMR Retention, the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 98.7%, indicating that valuation models have moved further from market prices early in January, though that is typical early in a new year with the holiday period. MMR retention is three-tenths of a point lower compared to the first half of January 2024. The average daily sales conversion rate of 59.6% in the first half of the month was several points higher than last year’s level of 55.2%, yet it is below the first half of January 2019 by 3 points. While early January conversion is below the comparison of early 2019, it’s above levels from the last three years, which averaged 54.4%.
Major market segments saw mixed results for seasonally adjusted year over year in the first half of January. Compared to the industry’s year-over-year increase of 0.7%, luxury and SUVs performed best, rising by 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. All other segments were lower year over year, as midsize sedans fell 1.6%, pickup trucks declined 1.7%, and compact cars were down 3.1% over the time period.
Comparing results to the end of December, results also varied by segment. The overall industry increased by 0.3% compared to the prior month, and luxury increased more, rising by a full 1.5%, as SUVs also outperformed and were higher by 0.6%. Showing more depreciation than the industry overall, midsize cars declined 0.8%, pickup trucks were down 1.5%, and compact cars fell 1.7% compared to the prior month.
Electric vehicles (EVs) still continue to exhibit the highest levels of depreciation again, yet the overall decline decelerated again early in January. EVs were down 4.5% compared to January 2024, while the non-EV segment rose by 0.2%. Compared to December values, EVs showed a strong gain and increased by 2.7% in the first half of January, while non-EVs showed a gain of 0.3% in the month. Non-adjusted EV values were higher by 2.4% in the first half of January as well, illustrating the impact was driven primarily by segment value changes and not only the seasonal adjustment.
Wholesale supply is up in mid-January. Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data, wholesale supply ended December at an estimated 31 days, up two days from the end of November and flat compared to December 2023, also at 31 days. Wholesale supply continues to hold tighter at this time of year, running one day lower than the longer-term levels for this week. As of Jan. 15, wholesale supply increased by two days from the end of December, moving to 33 days, up one day versus last year. It’s normal to see wholesale days’ supply rise in the first half of a new year, given the holiday impact on the sales calendar.
Measures of consumer sentiment showing mixed trends in January. The initial January reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan declined 1.1% to 73.2, which was weaker than expected and left the index down 7.3% year over year. Views of current conditions improved in January, but expectations declined. Expectations for inflation in one year jumped to 3.3% from 2.8%, and expectations for inflation in five years jumped to 3.3% from 3.0%. Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles increased slightly to the best level since April 2024 as views of both prices and interest rates improved. The daily index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult increased 0.9% through Jan. 15. It increased 0.1% in December, extending a six-month upward trend. The daily index in mid-January was up 12.8% year over year. According to AAA, the average price of unleaded gasoline increased 0.4% to $3.10 per gallon in December and is up 1.3% as of Jan. 15, remaining unchanged year over year.
