Used Vehicle Value Index
Quarterly Conference Call
The next quarterly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) conference call is scheduled for Tuesday, Jul 8 at 11am ET.
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Join Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke, Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights, and Scott Vanner, Economic and Industry Insights analyst, as they discuss the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and the major economic and industry trends that shaped the quarter.
All questions related to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and wholesale market can be sent to manheim.data@coxautoinc.com.
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By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. View the index methodology.
The Manheim Index is increasingly recognized by both financial and economic analysts as the premier indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, but should not be considered indicative or predictive of any individual remarketer’s results.
Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in July
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in July compared to June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 207.4, which is still an increase of 2.9% from a year ago, while lower than June levels by 0.5%. The seasonal adjustment muted the results for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values overall fell more than usual for the month. The non-adjusted price in July decreased 1.4% compared to June, which now makes the unadjusted average price higher by 3.0% year over year.
“Wholesale appreciation trends have continued to be a bit more volatile this year as tariffs have stirred demand in used markets for customers worried about price increases,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “The Manheim index has spent the last five months bouncing higher or lower against the previous read, as price changes are felt more acutely with lower levels of inventory on the ground. We are starting to see some of the new Model Year 2026 vehicles, and as that mix grows, we will get a better hint of the increases car makers are trying to pass along to consumers. But both new and used retail sales have remained relatively healthy, and when you couple that with tighter inventory levels at Manheim, we generally have pretty solid demand at the auction.
In July, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw mixed price changes, with the largest weekly decline occurring in the middle of the month, while prices showed some appreciation in later weeks. In the final week of July, values rose by 0.1% and were flat in the week before, showing lower depreciation rates than we normally see. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 0.3%, less than usual. Those same weeks delivered an average decrease of 0.6% between 2014 and 2019, indicating depreciation trends were more muted for the month overall and likely influenced by the relatively tight inventory levels observed.
Over the month, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.2%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values this month and they were flat to June levels. Against last year, valuation models were down by 0.6 percentage points (60 bps) for MMR retention although they are higher than July levels seen in 2022 and 2023. The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 56.9%, an increase of 0.1% against last month and higher than normally seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 51.6% in July over the last three years
Most major market segments were higher for seasonally adjusted prices year over year in July, except the car segments. Compared to July 2024, the luxury segment rose the most for the sixth month in a row, increasing by 6.8%, with SUVs also higher by 2.3% over the last year, though below the industry average. Also lower than the industry, trucks were higher by just 0.4%, mid-size sedans declined 1.1%, and compact cars fell the most, down 4.4% against last year. Almost every segment was lower compared to the previous month, except for trucks which were higher by 0.2%. Mid-size sedans were lower by just 0.1%, and the luxury segment declined by 0.3%. The SUV segment was down 0.8% against June, and compact cars fell by a full point, a loss of 1.0% in the period
Looking at the market by powertrain, electric vehicle (EVs) values are still showing larger gains against last year than the market overall, which is partially driven by depressed values observed in the comparison period. For reference, wholesale EV values showed strong declines in the second half of 2023 and first half of 2024, making the current year-over-year valuation changes more notable. EV values have shown higher year-over-year appreciation trends for the last four months consecutively and were higher by 8.3% against the same month in 2024, while non-EVs rose by 2.4%. For July, EV values declined more than non-EVs, falling by 0.7% against the prior month, while non-EVs increased by 0.1% over the same period.
Retail used-vehicle sales were up in July. Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, initial estimates of retail used-vehicle sales in July were up 1.7% compared to June and up year over year by 2%. The average retail listing price for a used vehicle decreased 0.2% over the last four weeks.
Using estimates of retail used days’ supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates July ended at 46 days’ supply, down one day from 47 days at the end of June and down two days from July 2024 at 48 days
New-vehicle sales in July increased 6.6% from last year, and volume also picked up steam from June, rising 9.3% from an elevated level and continuing to show some volatility from the tariff announcement. The July sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 16.4 million, up 0.6 million from last year’s pace and much higher than the 15.3 million level in June.
Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government fleets rose 17.9% year over year in July, as rental rose sharply and commercial fleet sales were higher, and those increases were able to offset continued weakness in the government segment. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining new retail sales were estimated to be up 6.7% from last year, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 13.8 million, up from 12.9 million in June and higher than the 13.4 million last July. Fleet share was estimated to be 15.0%, just down from last year’s 15.1% share.
Rental risk price and mileage results remained mixed against last July. The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in July increased 4.3% year over year. Additionally, rental risk prices fell by 1.4% compared to June, in line with the move for the wholesale market overall. Average mileage for rental risk units in July (at 48,200 miles) fell 11.9% for the month against last year’s level but was a little higher against the June comparison, rising by 0.6% over the month
Measures of consumer confidence improved slightly in July. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased 2.1% in July, erasing some of the decline from June, and was stronger than expected. Consumers’ views of the present declined slightly while views of the future improved strongly. Consumer confidence was down 4.6% year over year. Plans to purchase a vehicle in the next six months declined to the lowest level in three months and was slightly lower year over year. The sentiment index from the University of Michigan increased 1.6% in July to 61.7 and added to a stronger gain in June but was slightly weaker than the reading at the beginning of the month. The index was down 7.1% year over year. The underlying views of current conditions improved, but future expectations declined slightly. Expectations for inflation in one year decreased to 4.5% from 5.0%, and expectations for inflation in five years decreased to 3.4% from 4.0%. Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles improved, as views of prices and interest rates both improved slightly. The daily index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult increased 1.3% in July, reversing some of June’s decrease and leaving the index up 6.2% year over year. According to AAA, the national average price for unleaded gas decreased 3 cents in July from the end of June to $3.15 per gallon, which was down 10% year over year but up 2.9% year to date.
